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Climate models show that stratospheric aerosol injection in one hemisphere only or at the equator would have detrimental impacts on tropical precipitation. However, those detrimental impacts disappear in climate models with equal injection of aerosols in both hemispheres away from the tropics.
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I am pleased to announce that I have signed a new Postdoctoral Research Fellow contract to work on solar geoengineering simulations with the Met Office climate model, at the University of Exeter, with Jim Haywood.
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Models can reproduce Eocene global-mean surface temperature and gradient by having less cloud. But the seasonality of high-latitude land temperature is larger than that suggested by the proxies, and this may be caused by having a smaller cloud radiative forcing.
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We released a new preprint looking at why a/ Arctic land seasonality keeps decreasing in high-emissions scenarios even after sea ice has fully melted (see first figure below) and b/ better understand past warm climates which had exceptionally warm Arctic winters.
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While we are confident that solar geoengineering will reduce the Earth’s surface temperature, its impact on precipitation merits further consideration. Early influential studies showed that solar geoengineering may disrupt the summer monsoons in Africa and Asia (Robock et al. 2008). However, more recent research found that the climate outcome of stratospheric aerosol injection depends on the location (Kravitz et al. 2019), quantity, season (Visioni et al. 2020) of injection, and type of reflectant used (Seeley et al. 2020). It’s not yet clear how these affect precipitation patterns.
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I would like to better understand how solar geoengineering might affect precipitation. Early climate model studies of solar geoengineering (Robock et al. 2008 for example) showed that stratospheric aerosol injection could disrupt the Asian and African summer monsoons. However, the more recent solar geoengineering research shows that the climate outcome of stratospheric aerosol injection very much depends on the location, quantity, and season of injection, and type of reflectant used.
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In this post, I will try to summarize some of the research I came across on the physical science of solar geoengineering. Most of these studies relate to stratospheric aerosol injection.
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I am trying to understand how sea ice affects surface temperature in today’s climate and in projections of future climate change, and what drives the seasonality in Arctic temperature change.
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I submitted the last paper from my PhD onto EarthArXiv: Decomposing the drivers of polar amplification with a single column model, done in collaboration with Tim Merlis, Nick Lutsko, and Brian Rose. Here is a summary of the motivation of the paper and the main result.
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Critiques of solar radiation management often make erroneous assumptions as to how scientists think about solar radiation management and how it fits with emission reductions. My view on solar radiation management was very similar to what is shown in this video until I did more research on the topic, so I would like to share a few points.
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I played with FaIR $($Finite Amplitude Impulse Response simple climate model$)$ to look at the impact of the temporary reduction in emissions on global mean surface temperature change. The projected decrease in greenhouse gas emissions as a result of the pandemic vary a lot, but I just wanted to play with this model and have a sense of orders of magnitude.
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I gave a Pint of Science presentation on the 21st of May 2019 in Montreal. [This is written moreless as it was said, forgive the informal tone.]
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A research version of this post is available if you are already familiar with the topic.
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The Earth's surface is warming 2-3x faster in the Arctic than the global average. There is still debate on which mechanism is dominant in generating Arctic amplification of surface air warming.